The Rapture: May 21, 2011 – 6:00 PM (World to End October 21, 2011)

Yes, it's David Silverman.

Mark your calendars everyone!  Harold Camping, president of Family Radio, has predicted the rapture of Christians will begin May 21, 2011 at 6:00 PM (time zone: UTC +12).The world itself, and the remaining sinners, will stay on until October 21, 2011, at which point God will destroy everything. I’m sorry to disappoint those of you who believe the Mayan calendar calls for the end of the world sometime in 2012 – you’re obviously wrong.

Now, if you find yourself doubting Camping’s well researched claims, bear in mind that he has some experience in this matter, as this isn’t his first doomsday declaration. In 1994 Camping claimed in his self-published book 1994? that the world might end on September 6 of that year. As we can see, he was quite wrong, but in an interview with NPR correspondent Barbara Hagerty, Camping explains that his first prediction was flawed: "For example, I at that time had not gone through the Book of Jeremiah," he explains, "which is a big book in the Bible that has a whole lot to say about the end of the world." (2011).

In other words Camping failed to get his bible code correct (Perhaps William Dembski could provide an assist). Although he guarantees the numbers have been correctly crunched on this go-around, I hereby offer a bet: I wager $50,000 that the rapture does not begin May 21, 2011 and the end of the world does not occur on October 21, 2011. Takers are encouraged to direct payment to the donations page by October 22, 2011.

Now, my intention here is not to use Camping and his followers as yet another doomsday punching bag. In fact, Camping’s prediction has inspired me to prophesize a little myself. Do enjoy:

The Prophecy of Dave

One of the more interesting and thoroughly disturbing parts of Hagerty’s interview with Camping was not the possibility that the world will be ending, but rather the degree of excited devotion his followers demonstrate. While speaking with a young married couple – Adrienne and Joel Martinez – who have given up their worldly possessions in order to spread the word, Hagerty notes:

They don't see a need for one more dollar. ‘You know, you think about retirement and stuff like that,’ he says. ‘What's the point of having some money just sitting there?’ ‘We budgeted everything so that, on May 21, we won't have anything left," Adrienne adds. Nothing, except for the fervent hope that all of them will be raptured. (2011)

So, when this young couple – Adrienne is only 27 – with a child finds out October 22, 2011 that not only has the rapture not occurred, but the world is most certainly not ending, what are they going to do? What will come of Camping and his followers?

This question has fascinated scholars for a number of years.  Now common sense tells us these people would immediately see the error of their ways, and declare Camping a doomsday profiteer.  But that's not going to happen, and in order to understand why, there are a few things we need to cover first.

Consistency, Commitment  and Social Proof

Psychological consistency is the need for an individual to feel as though her thoughts, beliefs, attitudes and life in general are going well (Gass & Seiter, 2011). Originally, psychological consistency was posed as a “drive-reduction” theory which means that people are naturally driven toward maintaining a harmonious inner life free of conflicting opinions, ideas and beliefs" (p. 54). When consistency lags, human beings experience cognitive dissonance. Because dissonance can be both physically and psychologically uncomfortable, we will do whatever is necessary to reduce it.  Unfortunately, though certainly most commonly, consistency is maintained despite whether or not the individual's behavior would be considered rational.  Restoring (or maintaining) consistency is often a peripheral process, which essentially means that we do not pay a great deal of attention to it unless the inconsistency is quite large.

Psychological commitment is the idea that an individual's beliefs, attitudes and thought force her to take a stand on certain issues.  Renowned psychologist Robert Cialdini writes of commitment: "Once a stand is taken, there is a natural tendency to behave in ways that are stubbornly consistent with the stand." (59).  The natural tendency of which Cialdini speaks is, of course, our desire to appear and be perceived by others as consistent.  In that respect, each concept - consistency and commitment - works to support the other.  It is a reciprocal and interdependent relationship. 

The final concept worth being familiar with is that of social proof.  Cialdini writes:

This principle states that we determine what is correct by finding out what other people think is correct (Lun et al., 2007). The principle applies especially to the way we decide what constitutes correct behavior. We view a behavior as correct in a given situation to the degree that we see others performing it. (2009, p. 99)

Social proof is useful not just in generating cognitive dissonance but also is establishing and supporting consistency and commitment:  other people are doing it, so it must be okay.  Now, before you get all high and mighty on me - consider how powerful social proof actually is.  We use it everyday to assist in making sense of the world around us.  For the most part this shortcut method - or judgmental heuristic - is accurate.  In fact, Cialdini notes that it may (along with other short-cut methods) represent the most rational response to an exceedingly complex and dynamic reality (2009).

The Redemption Narrative

With that bit of information now securely processed (not peripherally, I hope), we can move on to considering what will happen to Camping's followers when his misguided assertions prove false.  In general, we may expect that Camping's followers stand to lose a great deal in terms of psychological consistency.  In fact, the dissonance this event could produce in followers is, quite honestly,  capable of psychological torment on a biblical scale.  This is due mostly to the fact that they have given everything to a cause which cannot fail.  So what happens when it does?

In 1994? Camping hedged his bets by saying the rapture might not occur.  When it did not, Camping and his followers were safe both psychologically and in terms of consistency - the blame could be placed elsewhere with little difficulty.  Fast forward to 2011, and Camping has not hedged his bets.  He states: "It is going to happen.  There is no Plan B." (Hagerty, 2011). 

As Camping has not hedged his bet, his only recourse in this matter is to either admit his own inaccuracy and fallibility or to develop a redemption narrative.  The former is unlikely as it will cost him a significant amount of followers/power and open the door to criticism such as "we should have seen this coming with the 1994 business . . "  But there is a clear way out which not only secures and supports psychological consistency and commitment among members, affirms his position as spiritual leader, but actually rewards followers for having sacrificed so much.  My prophecy is that Camping will choose the latter option in explicating why the rapture did not occur and why the world is not ending. 

The redemption narrative is not new - I'm honestly not as clever as appears ;+)  No, the redemption narrative was first seriously studied and recounted by Festinger, Reicken and Schachter (1964) in their now famous review: When Prophecy Fails.  The book catalogs the behavior of a Chicago based cult, called the Guardians, which prophesied an end-of-times scenario.  Here is a selection of that work as cited in Cialdini (2009): 

The last ten minutes were tense ones for the group in the living room.  They had nothing to do but sit and wait, their coats in their laps.  In the tense silence two clocks ticked loudly, one about ten minutes faster than the other.  When the faster of the two pointed to twelve-five, one of the observers remarked aloud in the fact.  A chorus of people replied that midnight had not yet come.  Bob Eastman affirmed that the slower clock was correct; he had set it himself only that afternoon.  It showed only four minutes before midnight.

These four minutes passed in complete silence expect for a single utterance.  When the [slower] clock on the mantel showed only one minute remaining before the guide to the saucer was due, Marian exclaimed in a strained, high-pitched voice: ''And not a plan has gone astray!'  The clock chimed twelve, each stroke painfully clear in the expectant hush.  The believers sat motionless.

One might have expected some visible reaction.  Midnight had passed and nothing had happened.  The cataclysm itself was less than seven hours away.  But there was little to see in the reactions of the people in the room.  There was no talking, no sound.  People sat stock-still, their faces seemingly frozen and expressionless.  Mark post was the only person who even moved.  He lay down on the sofa and closed his eyes but did not sleep.  Later, when spoken to, he answered monosyllabically but otherwise lay immobile.  The others showed nothing on the surface, although it became clear later that they had been hit hard . . . .

Gradually, painfully, an atmosphere of despair and confusion settled over the group.  They reexamined the prediction and the accompanying messages.  Dr. Armstrong and Mrs. Keech reiterated their faith.  The believers mulled over their predicament and discarded explanation after explanation as unsatisfactory.  At one point, toward 4 A.M., Mrs. Keech broke down and cried bitterly.  She knew, she sobbed, that there were some who were beginning to doubt but that the group must beam light to those who needed it most and that the group must hold together.  The rest of the believers were losing their composure, too.  They were all visibly shaken and many were close to tears.  It was now almost 4:30 A.M., and still no way of handling the disconfirmation had been found.  By now, too, most of the group were talking openly about the failure of the escort to come at midnight.  The group seemed near dissolution.  (Festinger et al., 1964, pp. 162-3, 168) (106).

 We see here the beginnings of group disillusionment.  The loss of consistency, the development of dissonance.  It is so powerful, that some individuals are moved to tears.  The realization that quitting their jobs, forgoing a future and devoting their life to that point to a misguided prophecy may have been a very serious mistake with very real consequences.  However, just when it seems the group will be forced to confront their fears, a solution appears:

In the midst of gathering doubt, as cracks crawled through the believers' confidence, the researchers witnessed a pair of remarkable incident, one after another.  The first occurred at about 4:45 A.M. when Marian Keech's hand suddenly began transcribing through 'automatic writing' the text of a holy message from above.  When read aloud, the communication proved to be an elegant explanation for the events of that night.  'The little group, sitting alone all night had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction.' Although neat and efficient, this explanation was not wholly satisfying by itself; for example, after hearing it, one member simply rose, put on his hat and coat, and left, never to return.  Something additional was needed to restore the believers to their previous levels of faith.  (Cialdini, 2009, p. 106-7).

The second incident of which Cialdini remarks is the development and utilization of social proof among group members to re-secure, support and rationalize continuing to believe in a system which was just dealt a heavy blow.  There was a fundamental shift in the way the group approached the world.  Originally, they were closed off and secretive, but with this new message they could go out into the world and claim that not only had this modest group of true believers single-handedly saved the entire world, they could also justify continuing to believe (and hopefully gain new members). 

I believe this is exactly what will occur in the case of Camping's followers.  They will find themselves utterly devastated when the rapture does not occur, and instead of disbursing (although some will), the group's fundamental purpose will alter; they will begin sharing with the world how they managed to save it by virtue of their own sacrifice.  Doing so will not only allow them to maintain consistency and justify continued commitment, but it will allow them to do so without abandoning their beloved leader. 

The only thing left to do now is wait.  But, in the mean time I hereby submit for your viewing pleasure, two photographs of a Family Radio billboard in my area: 

If you would like to view these billboards for yourself, point your GPS toward: 38.819208,-94.815762.

Finally, there has been some confusion concerning which time zone Camping is referring to when the states the rapture will begin at 6:00 PM.  According to Geoff Herbert of Syracuse.com, Camping reported the event will begin in New Zealand or Fiji with an earthquake spreading outward across the globe (2011).

So, does that mean one area will experience an earthquake and Christians worldwide will be immediately raptured?  No.  In an interview with Dan Amira of New York Magazine, Camping states:

[. . .] when the clock says about 6 p.m., there’s going to be this tremendous earthquake that’s going to make the last earthquake in Japan seem like nothing in comparison. And the whole world will be alerted that Judgment Day has begun. And then it will follow the sun around for 24 hours. As each area of the world gets to that point of 6 p.m. on May 21, then it will happen there, and until it happens, the rest of the world will be standing far off and witnessing the horrible thing that is happening. (2011)

Regardless of what your time zone is relative to UTC +12, you can expect the rapture to begin in your area at 6:00 PM local time.  As a commenter on this post astutely observes: 

We lucky bastards in the West have more advance warning. So when the Gilbert Islands sink into the Pacific sometime tonight in world's largest ever recorded earthquake, we might still have time to reconsider our views and repent in the nick of time;)

That's what I call pulling a Homer J. Simpson.  Now, if you would prefer not to wait until 6:00 PM local time to view the rapture, I am sure the mass media will be picking up the story - FOXNews in particular.  If you find yourself bored or desiring to watch the event unfold live from region to region, I recommend using the following chart for determining when best to tune in:

Well . . .

It looks like New Zealand should have suffered an earthquake/rapture by now, but the United States Geological Survey isn't reporting any major activity.  I guess we have to call this rapture business what it is: a hoax!  I cannot wait until tomorrow when Camping and his followers begin espousing what will no doubt be a redemption narrative. 

Best hit of the day:

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References

Amira, D. (2011, May 11). A Conversation With Harold Camping, Prophesier of Judgement Day.  New York Magazine.  Retrieved May 20, 2011. 

Cialdini, R. (2009). Influence: Science and Practice, (5th ed.). New York, NY: Pearson Education,
Inc.

Festinger, L., Reicken, H. W. & Schachter, S. (1964). When Prophecy Fails. New York: Harper & Row

Gass, R.H. & Seiter, J.S. (2011). Persuasion: Social Influence and Compliance Gaining (4th ed.). New York: Pearson Education, Inc.

Geoff, H. (2011, May 12). May 21, 2011: Is it the end of the world?  Groups prepare for Judgment Day. Syracuse Online.  Retrieved May 18, 2011. 

Hagerty, B. B. (2011, May 7). Is The End Nigh? We’ll know Soon Enough. National Public Radio. Retrieved May 12, 2011

Lun, J. Sinclair, S., Whitchurch, E. R. & Glenn, C. (2007). (Why) do I think you think? Epistemic social tuning and implicit prejudice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 93, 957-972.